Brexit and the Climate Crisis
Cooperation and doing so quickly is the only means of addressing the climate crisis we must therefore take the Brexit fuel out of the Climate fire.
On the day that the US begins its withdrawal from the UN Paris Climate agreement, we now more than ever need to start cooperating in our endeavours to mitigate the threats posed by the escalating climate crisis. So it is worth highlighting the key dividend of a remain vote in the UK, will be deeper cooperation with our EU partners on reforestation and habitat restoration through the common agricultural policy.
As carbon sinks begin to fail, the rise CO2 in emissions now has its own momentum, despite anthropogenic emissions beginning to stabilise. These rises will have a profound impact on humanity and the ecology that sustains us. These impacts are becoming increasingly understood, raising sea levels, violent storms, flooding, droughts, all of which are impacting asset values that capitalise our economies. Parts of California are already now uninsurable due to the likelihood of forest fires, as are UK homes, similarly impacted due to flood risk. These factors will only escalate as we continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.
CO2 levels in the atmosphere will reach 450 parts per million by 2030 unless we take drastic action. The last time the level was over 400ppm, 3 million years ago, the sea levels were 65m meters higher than they are today. Sea level rises will only accelerate. According to a recent study, “Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment” https://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11195 We find it plausible that sea level rise (SLR) could exceed 2 m by 2100 for our high-temperature scenario, roughly equivalent to business as usual. This could result in land loss of 1.79 M km2, including critical regions of food production, and displacement of up to 187 million people. A SLR of this magnitude would clearly have profound consequences for humanity. This melting is further triggering feedback mechanisms such as methane release from both the artic tundra and the shallow East Siberia sea that will contribute to the stock of greenhouse gases that are trapping heat in the atmosphere.
By contrast, the rate of sequestration by vegetation of CO2 increasingly lags behind our emissions, due primarily, to our agriculture. The following graph illustrates sequestration in the UK over the past 20 years.
In light of these challenges, we’ve looked at the extent of public understanding of the issue, in order to evaluate how we might change behaviour. We know solutions are hard to deliver, but we do know we will need to:
- Reforest Rapidly
- Change our Lifestyle
- Recycle and reuse throughout the economy
- Eat Less Meat
- Travel Less and…
- Travel More Sustainably
- Learn More
To evaluate the urgency with which we will need to change our lifestyles, we have asked members of the public to calculate or estimate the extent of reforestation required to offset our current carbon emissions to net zero. We’ve further simplified this question to the number of oak trees that would be required. Oak offers both an attractive metaphor because “ From tiny acorns grow great Oak trees”, but also because much of Northern Europe would default to Oak woodlands were it left to re wild naturally. Something a child could explain to an elderly relative.
We’ve then compared the public response to the most accurate answer from the climate science community. To improve our precision and accuracy, we used some collective intelligence in order to average out the most accurate answer. Collective intelligence involves pooling the forecast data and averaging out that data to deliver a more accurate forecast than those produced individually. The data below illustrates the latest science.
1. Potential of reforestation has a global average of about 10 t CO2(eq) per year per hectare (e.g. see https://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645 whose estimates of global potential imply 7–10t CO2 per year per hectare).
2. UK emissions are currently 491 million tonnes (see graph below). See page 19 of July 2019 Parliamentary Committee Climate Change report
Given these emissions, the current consensus estimate is that by planting trees, we would need to plant approximately 49 million hectares of forest, assuming the most optimistic sequestration of 10t CO2 per hectare per year.
What’s most worrying about our initial research is a significant undershoot in respect of the extent of the potential reforestation required in the estimates produced by the public. Further more refined research will be conducted. What is clear however, is that the issue will be a significant one in the forthcoming general election.
With the UK Landmass approximately 24 million hectares, it is unrealistic to assume we could even begin to achieve the levels necessary without drastically reducing our emissions, investing in new technologies and cooperating with our neighbours, particular those that are more sparsely populated such as France, and further east in Europe. It is far more effective to encourage the Poles to reduce their coal output by incentivising alternative industries such as reforestation and we use the cultural dividend of freedom of movement in the single market to do so. Other countries will be similarly aware of the science and will in time conduct their own interventions, with potentially catastrophic consequences, should they pursue solar radiation management technologies independently. The parallels with early human genetic modifications trials in China for example, illustrate a similar precedent.
Cooperation will require strong and effective institutions, the most obvious of which is the EU. The only institution that has had any impact on the scale of the land reform required over the past 50 years. As effective as the common agricultural policy (CAP) has been in increasing food production in key staples through subsidies, so those policies can be modernised to meet the realities of the climate crisis. The CAP must be updated to encourage a faster rate of reforestation and a shift towards a more plant based diet for its citizens. CAP modernisation should be the first priority of a newly empowered UK government elected on a commitment of remaining in the EU. It would be broadly welcomed by the community, it would re-energise the Macron government of France, and the green voting citizens of the Germany and would be one of key dividends of a British Remain Government.
Only significant changes to CAP will yield the levels of reforestation that will even begin contribute alleviating the extent of the challenge. The alternative of individual trade agreements outside of the EU, will result in yet more climate degradation and the empowerment of the status quo that has destroyed so much of our environment already. This is particularly true of any trade agreement involving the Trump administration as it leaves the Paris climate accord.
By way of illustration, in July 2019, the Parliamentary Committee Climate Change report is recommending 30,000–50,000 hectares afforestation every year to 2050. Despite being an otherwise excellent report, this still represents a significant undershoot, the impact of which will be negligible in respect of emissions offsetting. The report also argues for Technological changes in order to deliver clean energy, yet dodges the question of the availability of expert skills and services would be impacted by Brexit. Whilst It could happen that the likely economic slow down of Brexit will actually limit the growth in emissions, in all likelihood this would also suffocate efforts in decarbonisation generally due to the strain on public finances.
Cooperation will also need to extend to engineering and infrastructure design in order to enable the UK to adapt to the changing climate. Most notably Dutch expertise in flood management. The Netherlands have been adapting to living below sea level for hundreds of years and are in many respects well prepared for sea level rises. Danish, Belgium, German and experience of mobility will also play a critical part with health care outcomes also much improved when nations invest heavily in cycle and clean mobility infrastructure. It is worth noting, the Conservative governments initial post Brexit custom proposals suggest raising tariffs on bicycle components from the EU, something that is hardly going to stimulate greener forms of transport.
Dealing with the climate crisis will require free movement of labour and expertise, influence and cooperation on CAP reform, and economic capacity to implement these profound changes. If ever there was a time to increase our contribution, cooperation and commitment to the European Union, the climate crisis highlights how important it is that we do so right now.
References
Progress in preparing for climate change — 2019 Progress Report to Parliament https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-preparing-for-climate-change-2019-progress-report-to-parliament/
Doughnut Economics, Kate Raworth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53bjsH3V8YU&feature=youtu.be
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment https://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11195
Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/4/eaav7337
Natural Climate solutions https://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645
Carbon sequestration: how much can forestry sequester CO2? https://medcraveonline.com/FREIJ/FREIJ-02-00040.pdf
